О риске глобального конфликта

"Конечно, сейчас такой глобальный "горячий" конфликт (как Вторая мировая война - прим. ТАСС), надеюсь, в принципе невозможен. Очень надеюсь. Он означал бы конец цивилизации. <...> Но ситуация может развиваться непредсказуемо и неуправляемо. Если, конечно, ничего не предпринимать для того, чтобы этого не случилось".

“当然，现在有这样的全球‘热’冲突（如第二次世界大战——塔斯社注），我希望，在原则上是不可能的。我真的希望如此。这将意味着文明的终结。<...>但局势的发展可能是不可预测和不可控制的。当然，除非不采取任何措施来防止这种情况的发生。”

In the 21st century, nowadays such heated conflict is not possible, i hope, but it is not possible in principle because it would mean the end of our civilization. If we sit on our hands doing nothing to avoid it, there is a possible visit -- a possibility we may see a global collapse.

在21世纪，如今这样激烈的冲突是不可能的，我希望如此，但原则上这是不可能的。因为这将意味着我们文明的结束。如果我们袖手旁观，不做任何事情来避免它，就有可能看到全球崩溃的可能性。

Social stratification is growing stronger both globally and in individual countries. We have spoken about this before as well. But this, in turn, is causing today a sharp polarization of public views, provoking the growth of populism, right- and left-wing radicalism and other extremes, and the exacerbation of domestic political processes including in the leading countries.

All this is inevitably affecting the nature of international relations and is not making them more stable or predictable. International institutions are becoming weaker, regional conflicts are emerging one after another, and the system of global security is deteriorating.（……）As you are aware, the inability and unwillingness to find substantive solutions to problems like this in the 20th century led to the WWII catastrophe.

Of course, such a heated global conflict is impossible in principle, I hope. This is what I am pinning my hopes on, because this would be the end of humanity. However, as I have said, the situation could take an unexpected and uncontrollable turn – unless we do something to prevent this. There is a chance that we will face a formidable break-down in global development, which will be fraught with a war of all against all and attempts to deal with contradictions through the appointment of internal and external enemies and the destruction of not only traditional values such as the family, which we hold dear in Russia, but fundamental freedoms such as the right of choice and privacy.

I would like to point out the negative demographic consequences of the ongoing social crisis and the crisis of values, which could result in humanity losing entire civilizational and cultural continents.

We have a shared responsibility to prevent this scenario, which looks like a grim dystopia, and to ensure instead that our development takes a different trajectory – positive, harmonious, and creative.

社会分层在全球和各个国家都在不断加强。我们以前也谈到过这一点。但这反过来又造成了今天公众观点的急剧分化，激起了民粹主义、右翼和左翼激进主义和其他极端主义的增长，以及国内政治进程的恶化，包括在主要国家。

所有这些都不可避免地影响了国际关系的性质，并没有使其更加稳定或可预测。国际机构正变得越来越弱，地区冲突接连出现，全球安全体系正在恶化。（......）如你所知，在20世纪，由于没有能力和不愿意为这样的问题找到实质性的解决方案，导致了二战的灾难。

当然，我希望这样激烈的全球冲突在原则上是不可能的。这就是我寄予希望的地方，因为这将是人类的末日。然而，正如我所说，情况可能会发生意想不到的、无法控制的转变--除非我们做一些事情来防止这种情况。我们有可能面临全球发展的可怕崩溃，这将充满了所有人对所有人的战争，并试图通过任命内部和外部的敌人来处理矛盾，不仅破坏我们在俄罗斯珍视的家庭等传统价值观，而且破坏选择权和隐私权等基本自由。

我想指出正在发生的社会危机和价值观危机的负面人口性的后果，这可能导致人类失去整个文明和文化大陆。

我们有共同的责任来防止这种看起来像是严峻的反乌托邦的景象，而是要确保我们的发展走上不同的轨道——积极的、和谐的、创造性的。

至于（核武器）这个话题本身，当然是一个非常重要和敏感​​的话题。但我想让你知道、我想让我们的人民知道、我想让其他国家知道我们使用核武器的计划——我希望它永远不会发生——但理论上来讲，这就是所谓的‘受到攻击时的发射’。这是什么意思？这代表，只有在我们的预警系统不只记录到有导弹的发射，而且准确预测弹道和弹头会落在俄罗斯领土上时，才会做出使用核武器的决定。这就是我们所说的‘受到攻击时的发射’。

也就是说，如果有人决定摧毁俄罗斯，我们将有合法的报复权力。是的，这将是一场全球性的灾难，整个世界的灾难，但身为俄罗斯公民、俄罗斯国家的领导人，我问自己：我们需要一个没有俄罗斯的世界吗？

As for this topic itself, of course, it is a very important and sensitive topic. but I want you to know I want our people to know and I want it to be known abroad, that our plans to use nuclear weapons - and I hope it will never happen - but theoretically, it's the so-called ‘launch under attack’. What does it mean? It means that a decision to use nuclear weapons can only be taken if our early-warning system not only registers the launch of missiles, but also gives the exact prognosis of the trajectory and of the time when the warheads will fall on the Russian Territory. And this is called ‘launch under attack'.

In other words, if someone decides to destroy Russia, we will have a legitimate right to retaliate. Yes, it will be a global catastrophe, a catastrophe for the entire world, but I am a citizen of Russia, the leader of the Russian state, and I am asking myself: do we need such a world without Russia?